An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as acrucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise inancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within theelectricity balancing markets, mainly due to an increased number of extremeprice spikes. This study focuses on forecasting the behavior of price andvolumes of the Italian balancing market in the presence of an increased shareof renewable energy sources. Starting from configurations of load and powerproduction, which guarantee a stable performance, we implement fluctuations inthe load and in renewables; in particular we artificially increase thecontribution of renewables as compared to conventional power sources to coverthe total load. We then forecast the amount of provided energy in the balancingmarket and its fluctuations, which are induced by production and consumption.Within an approach of agent based modeling we estimate the resulting energyprices and costs. While their average values turn out to be only slightlyaffected by an increased contribution from renewables, the probability forextreme price events is shown to increase along with undesired peaks in thecosts.
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